SEC PRIMER (Week 13): The signs are out already looking for coaching help
Compiled by GRAHAM DUNN
The following isn’t a rhetorical question….
How many coaches will be replaced in the Southeastern Conference following the 2021 season?
We already know of at least one – LSU’s Ed Orgeron.
There is a chance Florida might go fishing. If Jimbo Fisher is the “dumbest coach in America” and decides to move across state lines to Louisiana, Texas A&M becomes another opening.
Would Bryan Harsin really go back to the West Coast and leave the Loveliest Village?
At the moment, it’s all fun and games trying to figure it out. But we must be prepared for the coaching shuffle every year.
As money gets bigger (and it will with a new playoff/TV system), expectations will grow exponentially.
Facts are facts: The almighty dollar is driving this early coach shopping. At the moment, there are 12 FBS openings…. 12. There were only 17 all of last season and all of them after the regular schedule was completed. Yeah, COVID and all that but still…
Last year, five SEC teams replaced coaches (Auburn/Missouri/South Carolina/Tennessee/Vanderbilt). The year before that, three coaches were replaced (Arkansas/Ole Miss/Mississippi State).
In three years, including LSU, all but five schools will have replaced their coach. In a word, that’s absurd.
Of the ones left, only four are considered “safe” in Bama’s Nick Saban, Kirby Smart at Georgia, Mike Leach at Mississippi State and Kentucky’s Mark Stoops (and there is actually some howling in Lexington these days, if you believe that).
Lane Kiffin could leave for one of several vacancies. Fisher may have put somewhat of an end to the speculation about his future with the Aggies, but why was there any to begin with? It had to start somewhere.
The LSU job is considered a plum thanks to fertile recruiting grounds and a strong backing of fans and boosters – some might say too strong since that’s what got the program in trouble to begin with (no word from the NCAA or Federal Courts yet but stay tuned).
If you put odds on the schools that will need to go coach shopping, the number would be fairly high for a couple. The most interesting might be Florida, where every time Dan Mullen opens his mouth, the chances of him hanging around Gainesville decrease.
The idea of Harsin leaving Auburn sounds a bit odd, but the first year of the marriage has been rocky at best. His handling of the COVID protocol did not go over well and the Tigers’ recruiting has been pathetic, at least to this point.
We all know the standard that has been set in the league and at the moment, only one coach has reached it. Kirby is matching Saban recruit for recruit and is in position to knock off the master in a couple of weeks (yes, the assumption that Alabama will be in the SEC Championship is officially made).
So, get your “8 Balls” and Ouija boards and start your predictions. It’s gonna be a fun ride.
SEC Schedule for Nov. 20 (Rankings are from CFP)
Prairie View A&M (7-2) at (16) Texas A&M (7-2, 4-2 SEC)
11 a.m. CST • SEC+/ESPN +
College Station, Texas • Kyle Field (102,733)
Series: A&M, 1-0 (Last meeting – 2016, @ A&M, 67-0)
Last week: Ole Miss def. A&M, 29-19; Florida def. Samford, 70-52
What about A&M/PRAIRIE VIEW
Aggies are facing Praire View for the second time, having won in 2016.
A&M PK Seth Small is three points shy of the school record in points with 362, trailing Randy Bullock (365).
A&M recorded 104 tackles against Ole Miss, the most in a game since 2017 (Wake Forest).
RRS PREDICTION: Texas A&M 55, Prairie View 7 (No line)
Tennessee St (5-5) at (25) Mississippi State (6-4, 4-3 SEC)
11 a.m. CST • SEC+ / ESPN+
Starkville, Miss. • Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field (61,337)
Series: First meeting
Last week: Miss St def. Auburn, 43-34; Austin Peay def. Tenn St, 36-7
What about MISS ST/TENN ST
With a win, Miss St will reach seven wins for the first time since 2018 (8-5).
Will Rogers leads the SEC in passing with 3,722 yards, good for second in FBS.
Miss St is third in the SEC and 11th in the nation in rushing defense (102.5 ypg).
Tennessee State is facing an SEC school for the third time, having lost two previous meetings against Vanderbilt.
RRS Prediction: Miss St 45, Tennessee St 13 (No line)
New Mexico State (1-9) at Kentucky (7-3, 5-3 SEC)
12 p.m. EST • SECN
Lexington, Ky. • Kroger Field (61,000)
Series: UK leads, 1-0 (Last meeting, 2016 - @ KY, 62-42)
Last week: Kentucky def. Vanderbilt, 34-17; Alabama def NM St, 59-3
What about KY/NM ST
Final home game for the Wildcats, looking to extend a 14-game non-conference winning streak.
Ky will finish with a winning record in the SEC for the second time since 1977. The other was 2018.
Chris Rodriguez surpassed 1,000 yards with 114 yards rushing against Vanderbilt.
New Mexico St plays an SEC team for the second straight week, having loss to Alabama, 59-3, last Saturday.
RRS Prediction: Kentucky 49, NM State 21 (Ky favored by 36)
Charleston Southern (4-5) at (1) Georgia (10-0, 8-0 SEC)
12 p.m. EST • SEC+/ ESPN+
Athens, Ga. • Sanford Stadium (92,746)
Series: UGA leads, 1-0 (Last meeting – 2014 – @ UGA, 55-9)
Last week: UGA def. Tennessee, 41-17; Ch. Southern def. Gardner-Webb, 32-24 (OT)
What about UGA/CHARLESTON SO
Georgia finishes the SEC schedule 8-0 for the first time in school history. The Dogs had undefeated seasons seven times with the last time in 1982 (6-0).
UGA now holds the No. 1 spot in the CFP for three weeks, the most in school history.
UGA trailed for the longest period of time this season against Tennessee, 7:07
RRS Prediction: Georgia 55, Charleston Southern 0 (No line)
(21) Arkansas (7-3, 3-3 SEC) at (2) Alabama (9-1, 5-1 SEC)
2:30 p.m. CST • CBS
Tuscaloosa Ala. • Bryant-Denny Stadium (100,077)
Series: Bama leads, 21-8 (Last meeting – 2020, Bama, 52-3)
Last week: Bama def. NM St, 59-3; Ark def. LSU, 16-13 (OT)
What about ARK/BAMA
Alabama has won 14 straight in the series. Nick Saban has never lost to the Razorbacks as the Bama coach, although his first win was later forfeited.
Ark snapped a five-game losing streak to LSU and won in Baton Rouge for the first time since 2007. The Razorbacks improved to 13-7 all time in overtime games.
Against LSU, Bumper Pool had his sixth double-digit tackle game of the season and the 15th of his career.
Bryce Young tied his own record for five TD passes in a game against New Mexico St.
Young is completing 76.5 percent of his passes on third down with 10 TDs.
RRS Prediction: Alabama 35, Arkansas 17 (BAMA favored by 20)
Florida (5-5, 2-5 SEC) at Missouri (5-5, 2-4 SEC)
3 p.m. CST • SECN
Columbia, Mo. • Faurot Field (62,621)
Series: Tied, 5-5 (Last meeting – 2020, @ FLA, 41-17)
Last week: Missouri def. South Carolina, 31-28; Florida def. Samford, 70-52
What about MIZZOU/FLA
UF QB Emory Jones broke a school record with 550 yards in total offense (464 passing) and his seven TDs tied a school record.
The Gators gave up the most points in the first half in school history to Samford, 42 points.
FLA has one of the worst turnover margins in the country (minus-8) and is 13th in the SEC, just ahead of Kentucky.
Mizzou’s Tyler Badie now leads the SEC in rushing (123.9 ypg) and is tied for the lead in scoring (16 TDs with Bryan Robinson).
Conner Bazelak returned to pass for 180 yards and 2 TDs (and 2 INTs) in the win over South Carolina.
RRS PREDICTION: Florida 45, Missouri 38 (Florida favored by 9)
Auburn (6-4, 3-3 SEC) at South Carolina (5-5, 2-5 SEC)
7 p.m. EST • ESPN
Columbia, S.C. • Williams-Brice Stadium (77,559)
Series: AU leads, 10-2-1 (Last meeting, 2020 - @ SC, 30-22)
Last week: Missouri def. SC, 31-28, Miss St def. Auburn, 43-34
What about AU/SC
Bo Nix became Auburn’s all-time career leader in total offense on Saturday with 374 yards in the loss to Miss St.
With the injury to Anders Carlson, Auburn will start a kicker who’s name is not Carlson since 2013. Daniel Carlson kicked from 2014-17 and brother Anders has kicked since 2018. Cody Parkey was the last kicker (2013 season) not named Carlson at Auburn.
Last year’s win for SC was the first against Auburn since 1933, snapping and eight-game losing streak in the series.
SC leads the SEC with four defensive scores.
QB T.J. Findley will make his first start for Auburn and his fifth in his career (all others at LSU).
RRS Prediction: Auburn 24, South Carolina 20 (Auburn favored by 7.5)
Vanderbilt (2-8, 0-6 SEC) at (12) Ole Miss (8-2, 4-2 SEC)
6:30 p.m. CST • SECN
Oxford, Miss. • Vaught-Hemingway Stadium (64,038)
Series: UM leads, 51-40-2 (Last – 2020, UM, 51-40)
Last Week: Ole Miss def. Texas A&M, 29-19; Kentucky def. Vanderbilt, 34-17
What about VANDY /OLE MISS
Ole Miss had 257 yards rushing in the win over A&M, the most given up by the Aggies this season.
Ole Miss held and opponent scoreless in the first half for the second straight game.
Vandy continued its streak of an interception in seven straight. The Dores are one game away from tying the streak of eight set in 1996.
A win would give Ole Miss its first undefeated season at home since 1992.
RRS Prediction: Ole Miss 45, Vanderbilt 20 (Ole Miss favored by 36.5)
South Alabama (5-5) at Tennessee (5-5, 3-4 SEC)
7:30 p.m. EST • ESPNU
Knoxville, Tenn. • Neyland Stadium (102,455)
Series: UT leads, 1-0 (Last meeting - 2013, @ TENN, 31-24)
Last week: UGA def. Tennessee, 41-17; App St def. USA, 31-7
What about USA/TENN
Two teams met in 2013. USA has played six games against SEC foes, winning one against Miss St in 2016 and falling in the other five contests.
UT LB Jeremy Banks has 89 tackles, good for third in the SEC.
Last Sun Belt opponent UT faced was Georgia State, which beat the Vols in the 2019 season opener.
USA has six players formerly on SEC squads.
RRS Prediction: Tennessee 47, South Alabama 16 (Tenn favored by 28)
La-Monroe (4-6) at LSU (4-6, 2-5 SEC)
8 p.m. CST • ESPN2
Baton Rouge, La. • Tiger Stadium (102,321)
Series: LSU leads, 3-0 (Last meeting, 2014 - @ LSU, 31-0)
Last week: Arkansas def. LSU, 16-13 (OT); Arkansas St def. La-Monroe, 27-24
What about LSU/ULM
LSU has the third most pass attempts, behind Miss St and Missouri with 360. They are 10th in passing yards per attempt.
LSU is near the bottom in rushing averaging 111 yards per game.
ULM is ranked 126th (out of 130 teams) in pass defense.
Two teams last met in 2014. LSU has won all four meetings. ULM is 4-48-1 against SEC teams with last win coming in 2012 against Arkansas, 34-31 in OT.
RRS Prediction: LSU 34, La-Monroe 14 (LSU favored by 29)
RRS RECORD: Last week: 6-2 (5-2 vs. spread); Season: 71-22 (35-45 vs. spread)