SEC PRIMER (Week 5): Valuable prizes await for the big winners this week
STAFF REPORT
Who gets to spin the wheel of upset this week? Who goes down and who becomes the new darling of the sports world?
We’ve got some great contestants.
It’s all part of the SEC version of “WHEEL.” “OF.” “FORTUNE.”
(Sorry, no Vanna this time.)
Yes, the wheel will spin this weekend for the likes of Kentucky, Ole Miss and Arkansas. Can they become part of the league’s elite with an epic victory over the already elite?
Can any of them plow through any talk of an upset in pregame that is just that – talk?
What will it take for all three to make it happen?
Let’s break it down – the “one” thing each one needs to win.
Arkansas – Pray for Rain.
Seriously, a wet track will neutralize the Georgia speed, to some degree. That might make the Dogs somewhat easier to block up front. There is nothing the Georgia defense can’t do so find something that will put Arkansas on a level playing field (it worked for Ole Miss against Alabama last year – run the play before the Tide defense gets lined up).
Unfortunately for the Hogs, the forecast calls for sunny weather in Athens Saturday with a high of around 85. That means Arkansas needs a few extra players due to possible fatigue and sun burn. It’s doubtful Georgia will lend any out.
Ole Miss – Turn Tuscaloosa into Turnover City
It worked before way back in 2015. It can work again if Ole Miss can make Bryce Young nervous and start slinging it to avoid the rush, look out. It also helps if the Rebels slow down the Tide ground attack.
Both will score. Bama will score a lot more if the Rebels don’t get cute (and going for it on all 4th downs really isn’t the answer). It’s about making Nick Saban uncomfortable and cranky. Matt Corral is capable but he better start early.
Kentucky – “Run Like Hell”
Newsflash – Emory Jones may not be as good as he’s looked. OK, he’s improved but to what degree we don’t know. He’s grown more confident but we’ll see if he can maintain that in a different environment. (He’ll apparently have his sidekick back in Anthony Richardson this week so that makes it tougher on the Cats.)
Bottom line - keep Jones and the Gator offense off the field.
Pink Floyd said it best. If you run, you stay out of trouble (and out of the cardboard box). The Cats need a solid rushing attack to make all this happen. They can do to the Gators what the Gators did to Bama. Control the clock and the chances improve. Get into a scoring fest and the losing streak to UF at home grows by one more game (which is currently 16).
One other point… Make what you want about everyone sizing up the favorite’s opponent. We frequently lose sight of the fact that there is a reason why a win by Arkansas or Ole Miss is considered a major upset. Their opponents are the best teams in the country.
Nothing is out of the question, especially this year. But don’t act like it’s a major surprise when Bama and Georgia win in a romp, either.
SEC Schedule for Oct. 2 (Rankings are from AP)
(8) Arkansas (4-0, 1-0 SEC) at (2) Georgia (4-0, 2-0 SEC)
12 p.m. EDT • ESPN
Athens, Ga. • Sanford Stadium (92,746)
Series: UGA leads, 11-4 (Last meeting - UGA, 37-10)
Last week: Ark def. Texas A&M, 20-10; UGA def. Vanderbilt, 62-0
What about ARK/UGA
Arkansas won in its last trip to Athens, 31-24, in 2010.
UGA’s defense allowing 5.8 ppg and has allowed one touchdown (South Carolina). Opponents have reached the Red Zone four times against UGA and kicked four field goals.
Vanderbilt managed just 77 yards on 46 plays against the Dogs last week.
Arkansas is 4-0 for the first time since 2003 and 1-0 in the SEC since 2010.
Ark leads the SEC with 0 fumbles lost and turnovers lost.
Under Kirby Smart, UGA is 11-6 against Top 10 teams, with the highest ranked win against Oklahoma in the 2018 Rose Bowl.
RRS Prediction: Georgia 38, Arkansas 10 (UGA favored by 19)
Tennessee (2-2, 0-1 SEC) at Missouri (2-2, 0-1 SEC)
11 a.m. CDT • SECN
Columbia, Mo. • Faurot Field (62,621)
Series: Mizzou leads, 5-4 (Last meeting - @ UT, 35-12)
Last week: Boston Coll def. Missouri, 41-34 OT; Florida def. Tennessee, 38-14
What about MIZZOU/UT
Tennessee is working on a modest two-game winning streak in the series. Last year’s win was one of 3 for the Vols in 2020.
Mizzou’s Tyler Badie leads the SEC with five rushing touchdowns. He also has four receiving touchdowns, the first Tiger to do so since 2007 (Jeremy Macklin).
Missouri is seventh nationally (first in SEC) in third-down conversions with 55%.
UT QB Hendon Hooker is questionable for the Missouri game, although he is no longer in concussion protocol.
RRS Prediction: Missouri 28, Tennessee 17 (Mizzou favored by 3)
(12) Ole Miss (3-0, 0-0 SEC) at (1) Alabama (4-0, 1-0 SEC)
2:30 p.m. CDT • CBS
Tuscaloosa Ala. • Bryant-Denny Stadium (101,821)
Series: UA leads, 52-10-2 (Last meeting - 2020, UA, 63-48)
Last week: Alabama def. Southern Miss, 63-14; Ole Miss did not play
What about OLE MISS/BAMA
Alabama has been ranked 1st or 2nd every year its played Ole Miss in the last 11 years.
The Rebels have converted 12 of 14 fourth down tries, tops in the nation.
Ole Miss QB Matt Corral has thrown a touchdown pass in 15 consecutive games.
Bryce Young passed for 313 yards and 5 TD with only 2 incompletions. He became the first player in Alabama history with 5 TDs passes with 2 or fewer incompletions in a game.
The Rebels are in the top 10 nationally in five different categories - scoring offense (52.7), total offense (635.3), rushing offense (298.7), turnovers lost (2) and fourth down conversion (0.857).
RRS PREDICTION: Alabama 54, Ole Miss 40 (UA favored by 14)
Troy (2-2) at South Carolina (2-2, 0-2 SEC)
3:30 p.m. EDT • SECN
Columbia, S.C. • Williams-Brice Stadium (77,559)
Series: SC leads, 3-0 (Last meeting - 2010, @ SC, 69-24)
Last week: Kentucky def. South Carolina, 16-10; ULM def. Troy, 29-16
What about TROY/SC
Troy throws the football 56.7 percent of the time which ranks among the most nationally.
SC safety Jaylan Foster intercepted his fourth pass of the season against Kentucky, tying for the lead nationally for INTs.
Troy is fourth in the nation in total defense averaging 243.5 ypg allowed.
RRS PREDICTION: South Carolina 28, Troy 21 (SC favored by 6.5)
(10) Florida (3-1, 1-1 SEC) at Kentucky (4-0, 2-0 SEC)
6 p.m. EDT • ESPN
Lexington, Ky. • Kroger Field (61,000)
Series: UF leads, 53-18 (Last meeting – 2020, @ UF, 34-10)
Last week: Fla. def. Tennessee, 38-14; Kentucky def. South Carolina, 16-10
What about UT/KY
KY is looking for its first 5-0 start since 2018 and just the fourth time in the last 70 years.
KY has won the last five games decided by 7 points or less. Three of those are from this season.
FLA last lost in Lexington in 1986 and has won 16 straight.
The Gators continued the streak of 400-yard games with 505 against Tennessee last week. The 14-game streak leads the nation.
Both teams enter the game with negative turnover margins: UF - .75/ UK – 2.25.
UF backup QB Anthony Richardson has been deemed “100 percent” and is expected to play after missing the last two games with an injury.
RRS Prediction: Florida 24, Kentucky 17 (UF favored by 8.5)
Mississippi State (2-2, 0-1 SEC) at (7) Texas A&M (3-1, 0-1 SEC)
6 p.m. CDT • SECN
College Station, Texas • Kyle Field (102,733)
Series: Tied, 7-7 (Last meeting 2020, A&M, 28-14)
Last week: Arkansas def. A&M, 20-10; LSU def. Miss St., 28-25
What about A&M/MISS ST
A&M’s Ainias Smith ranks fifth in the nation (1st in SEC) in punt returns with a 9.9 average.
Miss St has three players averaging more than 7 yards per catch: Lideatrick Griffin (8.1); Rara Thomas (7.5); RB Dillon Johnson (7.4).
MSU QB Will Rogers is only P-5 QB with 1,400 yards passing, 10-plus TD passes and less than two INTs.
A&M has the second-best scoring defense in the country, giving up 9.3 points per game.
RRS Prediction: Texas A&M 27, Miss St 24 (A&M favored by 7)
UConn (0-5) at Vanderbilt (1-3, 0-1 SEC)
6:30 p.m. CDT • ESPNU
Nashville, Tenn. • Vanderbilt Stadium (40,350)
Series: VU leads, 2-1 (Last meeting – 2011, VU, 24-21)
Last Week: Georgia def. Vanderbilt, 62-0; Wyoming def. UConn, 24-22
What about VU/UCONN
Coach Clark Lea was a fullback on the Commodores team the first time the two faced off in 2010.
UConn is one of the youngest teams in Division I with only 10 seniors.
Vandy ranks near the bottom nationally in nearly every offensive category, averaging 284 ypg., which is 123rd in the nation.
RRS Prediction: Vanderbilt 24, UConn 16 (VU favored by 14.5)
(25) Auburn (3-1, 0-0 SEC) at LSU (2-1, 0-0 SEC)
8 p.m. CT • ESPN
Baton Rouge, La. • Tiger Stadium (102,321)
Series: LSU, 31-23-1 (Last: @ AU, 48-11)
Last week: Auburn def. Ga. State, 34-24; LSU def. Miss St., 28-25
What about Aub/LSU
LSU has won 10 straight over Auburn in Tiger Stadium. Auburn’s last win there came in 1999 (41-7).
LSU is averaging 34.5 points and 377.8 yards per game. Max Johnson has six consecutive starts with at least three TD passes.
Bo Nix has thrown 203 consecutive passes without an interception, dating back to the 2020 Iron Bowl.
AU’s Anders Carlson missed his first field goal try after making 17 consecutive tries last week. He made three attempts against Ga. State.
Smoke Monday’s Pick 6 last week was his third in his career and first since 2020 (Tennessee).
LSU leads the nation with 20 sacks and second nationally with 42 TFLs.
RRS Prediction: LSU 31, Auburn 27 (LSU favored by 3.5)
RRS RECORD: Last week: 7-1 (3-5 vs. spread); Season: 39-8 (14-23 vs. spread)